The beginning of 2024 has been marked by a notable increase in residential sales within the Montreal Census Metropolitan Area (CMA), indicating a robust start for the region's real estate market. According to the latest report by the Quebec Professional Association of Real Estate Brokers (QPAREB), the Montreal CMA witnessed a significant uptick in residential transactions, with sales figures reaching 2,077 in January 2024. This represents an 18% increase, equivalent to 311 transactions, when compared to the same period last year. Despite this growth, it's important to note that these numbers still fall below the historical average for this time of year, a trend that has been observed since the Centris system began compiling market data in 2000.
The promising start to the year can largely be attributed to more optimistic views on interest rates. According to Charles Brant, the QPAREB Market Analysis Director, the consensus among economists is that the period of rising interest rates witnessed in late 2023 is now behind us. Predictions of a forthcoming downturn in rates have been reflected in the bond markets and have led to a notable decrease in fixed mortgage rates, positively impacting the real estate sector.
Despite these positive indicators, there are several factors that could potentially hamper the momentum in transactional activity. These include a significant slowdown in economic activity and prevailing uncertainties, which could affect households' willingness to purchase homes. However, the Bank of Canada's expected shift in monetary policy, with a projected interest rate cut later in the year, is anticipated to foster a positive environment for the real estate market as we approach the busy spring season.
The increase in residential property sales was uniformly observed across all main metropolitan areas of the Montreal CMA:
The transactional activity varied significantly across different property categories, with single-family homes, condominiums, and small income properties experiencing increases between 6% and 22%. Notably, the sale of single-family homes surged by 22%, while condominium sales grew by 15%.
January 2024 saw a substantial 16% increase in active listings across the Montreal CMA, totaling 16,838 listings. Despite this influx, the average selling time across different property categories increased compared to the previous year, with small-income properties taking the longest at 87 days.
All median prices saw an upward trend compared to the previous year, with condominiums increasing by 5%, single-family homes by 7%, and plexes also seeing a 7% jump. These price adjustments remained relatively stable on a consecutive monthly basis since December 2023, with small-income properties experiencing a slight 3% increase, while the median prices for condominiums and single-family homes remained unchanged.
The annual comparison of median prices in the main metropolitan areas of the Montreal CMA revealed significant variations, highlighting the dynamism of the regional real estate markets.
The start of 2024 has undoubtedly set a positive tone for the Montreal real estate market. With the anticipated changes in interest rates and the current market trends, both buyers and sellers have reasons to be optimistic about the year ahead.